Posts
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Monday, April 27, 2009
Ethanol Petition
If you'd like the option to buy E15 rather than just E10, please sign the petition at ethanol.org:
http://www.ethanol.org/petition/
I believe we should be allowed to choose more clean, American-made renewable fuel for our cars. The federal government arbitrarily limits the use of ethanol in a gallon of gasoline to just 10 percent, a regulation that is standing in the way of new green jobs, jeopardizing progress toward advanced biofuels, and putting energy security at risk. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is currently considering whether to allow the use of up to 15 percent ethanol, which would enable consumers to choose between fuels that contain no ethanol and any blend up to 15%.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
The Abandoned Road
When the course of civilization takes an unexpected turn — when, instead of the continuous progress which we have come to expect, we find ourselves threatened by evils associated by us with past ages of barbarism — we naturally blame anything but ourselves. Have we not all striven according to our best lights, and have not many of our finest minds incessantly worked to make this a better world? Have not all our efforts and hopes been directed toward greater freedom, justice, and prosperity?
If the outcome is so different from our aims — if, instead of freedom and prosperity, bondage and misery stare us in the face — is it not clear that sinister forces must have foiled our intentions, that we are the victims of some evil power which must be conquered before we can resume the road to better things?
However much we may differ when we name the culprit — whether it is the wicked capitalist or the vicious spirit of a particular nation, the stupidity of our elders, or a social system not yet, although we have struggled against it for a half a century, fully overthrown — we all are, or at least were until recently, certain of one thing: that the leading ideas which during the last generation have become common to most people of good will and have determined the major changes in our social life cannot have been wrong.
We are ready to accept almost any explanation of the present crisis of our civilization except one: that the present state of the world may be the result of genuine error on our own part and that the pursuit of some of our most cherished ideals has apparently produced results utterly different from those which we expected.
Excerpt from The Road to Serfdom - Friedrich von Hayek, 1944
Monday, April 13, 2009
Perspective
As we all tighten our belts - some more than others, of course - in today's uncertain economy, it is always good to gain a bit of perspective. Check out www.globalrichlist.com and see how you fare against the world. You might not be in as bad shape as you thought.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Cheaper Shale Oil
According to this article, new ceramic technology may provide a breakthrough with in situ shale oil development.
Of course, this would not be a good development with respect to carbon emissions. However, from a EROEI, as well as certain environmental concerns (water, subsidence, mining residues), it seems to be quite promising. And domestic energy production is quite good for many geopolitical concerns, the US current account deficit, and the economy as a whole.The process involves no mining, uses less water than other approaches, and doesn't leave behind man-made mountains of kerogen-sapped shale. And according to a Rand Corporation study, it can also be done at a third of the cost of mining and surface processing. One technical hitch, however, lies with the heater cable employed. The most common cables used today are insulated with a layer of magnesium oxide, which can deform, degrade, and ultimately short out over time under intense heat, constant exposure to moisture, and the occasional shifting of rock at great depths. Replacement and maintenance can be costly.
Handling such extremes requires "a combination of properties not currently available on the market," says Joe Culver, an official with the Department of Energy (DOE), which considers oil shale vital to America's energy security. In Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah alone, deposits equate to more than 800 billion barrels of recoverable crude.
Composite Technology Development of Lafayette, CO, set out to tackle the cable insulation challenge using a woven ceramic-fiber tape that gets wrapped around copper wiring. The ceramic insulation is a composite material that consists of ceramic fibers and an inorganic ceramic matrix that binds the fibers together. "It's our secret sauce," says executive vice president Mike Tupper, explaining that the fibers can also come braided or in the form of cloth, depending on the application.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
King of the Bulls
"I've never seen so much bull in my life," Deputy U.S. Marshal Barry Golden said shortly after entering the house. "Pictures of bulls, bull statues, even bulls on clothing. There's a lot of bull in the house." The bull theme even extended to the boats seized earlier Wednesday. A 55-foot yacht moored at a Fort Lauderdale marina is named Bull. A 24-foot speedboat taken from a warehouse in Palm City is named Little Bull.
It seems that uber-ponzi-schemer Bernie Madoff had something of a bull fetish. Authorities have been seizing his ill-gotten assets from around the globe, and most of the boats are named "Bull", or a derivative thereof.
Yeah, that's me taking the bull by the horns, it's how I like to run my business. It's a metaphor.But that actually happened though.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
News Flash!
Hey folks, a new study shows cutting down on sugary drinks is a way to lose weight!
Consumption of liquid calories from beverages has increased in parallel with the obesity epidemic. Earlier studies by Bloomberg School researchers project that 75 percent of U.S. adults could be overweight or obese by 2015 and have linked the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages to the obesity epidemic, which affects two-thirds of adults and increases the risk for adverse health conditions such as type 2 diabetes. Researchers recommend limited liquid calorie intake among adults and to reduce sugar-sweetened beverage consumption as a means to accomplish weight loss or avoid excess weight gain.I've also heard that expending more calories than you consume will do the same thing.
Other sugar posts:
Evaporated Cane Juice: Part II
High Fructose Corn Syrup
Caramel Apples
Sugar and the Environment
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Manning the Barricades
A special report (pdf) from the Economist Intelligence Unit examines the increased possibility for unrest due to the global economic crisis. Manning the Barricades lists three main risk scenarios, with rough probabilities of occurrence:
1. Central Forecast - 60%
Government stimulus stabilises the global financial system and restores economic growth in leading developed markets during 2010, albeit at lower levels than in recent years. This scenario underpins our regular analysis and is2. Main Risk - 30%
not the subject of this report.
Stimulus fails, leading to continued asset price deflation and sustained contraction in the leading economies-a depression persisting for some years. The stubborn decline in global economic activity is punctuated by occasional rallies that are taken as signs of recovery, but these quickly fade as the underlying downward trend reasserts itself. The prominent role of governments in propping up banks and reviving domestic demand leads to strong political pressure for protectionism, effectively putting the process of globalisation into reverse.3. Alternative Risk - 10%
Failing confidence in the dollar leads to its collapse, and the search for alternative safe-havens proves fruitless. Economic upheaval sharply raises the risk of social unrest and violent protest.Luckily, the most probable outcome is the one where everything turns out for the best, but the two negative outcomes still make up a 40% share. In Hold'em parlance, that's like A10 vs. KQ - not exactly a match up on which you'd like to stake your tournament life.
Social unrest has already begun to increase in some parts of the world and the economic conditions that are driving it seem to show little sign of relenting. This unrest can lead to calls for protectionist economic moves, civil disobedience, or outright regime change.
While one might think of such problems being relegated to the third world, there certainly exists the possibility for upheaval in our neighborhood. Certainly the potential for Mexico to collapse under the weight of narco-violence is a sobering prospect, especially for border states. We don't even have to look beyond our borders, however, to be faced with the possibility for trouble.
According to their rankings, the US falls in the "moderate" category, placing 110th out of 165. Very concerning to me is the fact that we are tied with Iceland. While social discontent may not have reached a fever pitch yet, it does not take too much imagination to envision a scenario that would result in violent mass protests if the economy worsens. Any more miscues with executive bonuses and financial bailouts while millions are out of work and hungry could quickly spread into dangerous populist anger. And beyond social discontent, the report lists three other forms of political risks:
- threats to democracy over and above outbreaks of political unrest;
- a negative impact on economic policies and longer-term potential growth rates—in particular, there is a risk of a descent into protectionism;
- a host of geopolitical risks, including ultimately the outbreak of large-scale international conflicts
As for threats to democracy, dire financial situations have the possibility to allow government to take unprecedented steps many times at odds with the Constitution. The ramifications of historic levels of government control into private businesses have yet to be fully understood. In the name of expediency, due process can become a casualty.
And perhaps most frightening of all, geopolitical conflict is always a possibility when you owe certain (sometimes unfriendly) nations trillions of dollars and - for one reason or another - decide you cannot or will not pay up. Or perhaps you decide to repay them in currency that has been purposefully devalued after being asked several times nicely to not do such a thing. War can also be a handy way for politicians to divert the attention of an angry populace looking for a scapegoat and an outlet for aggression. They have certainly been started for less.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Ten Trillion and Counting
The latest Frontline examines the massive US National Debt, focusing mostly on its political history. This is a story that must be absorbed by the American public. We must allow our politicians the political leeway to make the hard choices, and hold them accountable if they do not. We are literally mortgaging our country in order to live beyond our collective means. It certainly will not last forever, the question is: Will we stop before irreparable damage is done?
See also:
I.O.U.S.A. Part I and II
Squanderville vs Thriftsville
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Triffin's Dilemma
Triffin's Dilemma, identified by economist Robert Triffin, highlights a fundamental imbalance caused by a national currency acting simultaneously as a global reserve currency. Specifically it refers to the US dollar's role under the Bretton Woods agreement.
It states that the use of a national currency as global reserve currency leads to a tension between national monetary policy and global monetary policy. Triffin noticed that the US had two competing and incompatible goals while maintaining the Bretton Woods system:
If the United States stopped running balance of payments deficits, the international community would lose its largest source of additions to reserves. The resulting shortage of liquidity could pull the world economy into a contractionary spiral, leading to instability.
If U.S. deficits continued, a steady stream of dollars would continue to fuel world economic growth. However, excessive U.S. deficits (dollar glut) would erode confidence in the value of the U.S. dollar. Without confidence in the dollar, it would no longer be accepted as the world's reserve currency. The fixed exchange rate system could break down, leading to instability.
Obviously, the US was faced with a dilemma because it is not possible to run a balance of payments current account deficit and surplus at the same time.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Key Concept - Quantitative Easing
Quantitative easing is basically a term for "printing money". It refers to a central bank essentially creating new money and using it to reduce interest rates and thus encourage lending. It can accomplish this "easing" by: buying debt in the form of government bonds, buying assets from banks, directly lending to deposit-taking institutions, or any combination thereof.
Central banks normally use interest rate cuts to stimulate lending. Quantitative easing can be used when this strategy is not working or interest rates have already been cut to 0%. It can be used to combat deflation, but if the money supply is increased too much, it can create inflationary pressures. The ultimate risk is hyperinflation.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Bailouts In Brief
As the headlines continue to herald one multi-billion government payout after another, I thought it would be interesting to total them up. Luckily for me, CNNMoney already took care of it - listing the program, amount promised, and amount allocated thus far. The results are quite staggering.
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