Tech Watch

Joule Biotechnologies has announced what could be quite a revolution in 3rd generation biofuels. They claim to have created a process using engineered microorganisms that can convert CO2 and sunlight directly into fuel.

This eco-friendly, direct-to-fuel conversion requires no agricultural land or fresh water, and leverages a highly scalable system capable of producing more than 20,000 gallons of renewable ethanol or hydrocarbons per acre annually—far eclipsing productivity levels of current alternatives while rivaling the costs of fossil fuels.

They claim to be able to one day compete with $50 per barrel oil and are forecasting commercial scale ethanol production in 2010.

Liquid fuel technology will continue to play a pivotal role in transportation until battery technology is radically improved. If able to scale, this seems to be a great way to keep downward pressure on fuel costs, recycle CO2, reduce our reliance on foreign oil, and perhaps export technology and clean fuel around the globe.

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Cheaper Shale Oil

According to this article, new ceramic technology may provide a breakthrough with in situ shale oil development.

The process involves no mining, uses less water than other approaches, and doesn't leave behind man-made mountains of kerogen-sapped shale. And according to a Rand Corporation study, it can also be done at a third of the cost of mining and surface processing. One technical hitch, however, lies with the heater cable employed. The most common cables used today are insulated with a layer of magnesium oxide, which can deform, degrade, and ultimately short out over time under intense heat, constant exposure to moisture, and the occasional shifting of rock at great depths. Replacement and maintenance can be costly.

Handling such extremes requires "a combination of properties not currently available on the market," says Joe Culver, an official with the Department of Energy (DOE), which considers oil shale vital to America's energy security. In Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah alone, deposits equate to more than 800 billion barrels of recoverable crude.

Composite Technology Development of Lafayette, CO, set out to tackle the cable insulation challenge using a woven ceramic-fiber tape that gets wrapped around copper wiring. The ceramic insulation is a composite material that consists of ceramic fibers and an inorganic ceramic matrix that binds the fibers together. "It's our secret sauce," says executive vice president Mike Tupper, explaining that the fibers can also come braided or in the form of cloth, depending on the application.

Of course, this would not be a good development with respect to carbon emissions. However, from a EROEI, as well as certain environmental concerns (water, subsidence, mining residues), it seems to be quite promising. And domestic energy production is quite good for many geopolitical concerns, the US current account deficit, and the economy as a whole.

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U.S. Oil Import Map

Here's a great look at where our oil comes from - as well as where it came from in the past. The Rocky Mountain Institute created this slick graphical map derived from EIA data. Check it out:

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The Upside of Down

The Upside of Down. Thomas Homer-Dixon. Recommended.

This selection was on the short list for my Christmas break reading, and while I moved through it rather quickly, I'm not really sure where to begin in its review. I have begun to shy away from the near bottomless pit of doomsday books - there is only so much time in the day, and I see no need to continue tuning into an echo chamber. I will continue to seek out solutions, however, and this volume seemed to have an upbeat message, which was very intriguing. Could there really be an "upside to down"?

There are three main themes in The Upside of Down. First, the author highlights the many problems that we face. He then draws parallels on how similar problems have destroyed civilizations in the past, namely the Roman empire. Finally, he explores the ways that we might be able to deal with our problems, or position ourselves to rebound from the crash - the "upside", as it were.

The problems we face have been covered quite a bit in recent months, so I'll just summarize them here. The author uses an earthquake analogy, with five "tectonic stresses" building to a large catastrophic release.

• energy stress, especially from increasing scarcity of conventional oil;
• economic stress from greater global economic instability and widening income gaps between rich and poor;
• demographic stress from differentials in population growth rates between rich and poor societies and from expansion of megacities in poor societies;
• environmental stress from worsening damage to land, water forests, and fisheries; and,
• climate stress from changes in the composition of Earth's atmosphere.

I've covered several of these stresses quite a bit, especially in the Global Trends 2025 post series. He makes an interesting argument about the collapse of Rome, which I found to be the most memorable portion of the book.

In the second chapter, the author describes the energy requirements of ancient Rome in great detail. There have been countless looks at the fall of Rome, but as far as I know, the supposition that energy concerns caused its downfall is a rather novel idea. The basis of the argument rests in the fact that Rome depended on a solar economy. Nearly all of the energy they used was derived from humans and animals, thus food. Perhaps the most interesting factoid of the book was the calculation of exactly how much energy (in grain and hay) it took to build the Colosseum.

The grain and hay were fed to the humans and oxen who, in turn, built the elaborate structures and the most impressive society the world had yet seen. As the empire spread further from the center, more and more energy was spent in retrieving the energy on the outskirts. This is a common concept in peak oil circles - Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI). As the empire collected taxes from farther out, it took more resources to pacify/protect those people and then transport the remainder to Rome.

The city of Rome became dependent on these deliveries. The citizens and social structure were maintained by an elaborate system of food deliveries and taxation systems that kept everything running smoothly. According to the author, as time moved on, the good farmland was exhausted, all the rich neighbors were raided and exploited, the supply lines grew longer and the EROEI dropped to a level that could no longer support the society. The empire inevitably declined.

As for the "upside" of decline, I found the book less clear. After a several chapter diatribe on the evils of capitalism while giving no credible alternative, he gets to the payoff - catagenesis. Like a renewal of a forest after a fire, the author describes catagenesis as a rebirth, of sorts. So we must try to set ourselves up to be able to rebuild our society after the collapse - not exactly the uplifting message I was looking for.

Even still, the book seems to be lacking in concrete examples. The author puts limited faith in "managing solutions", which is no doubt what we will try to do. After it is clear that we must take some action, we will try to manage the problem while changing our way of life as little as possible. The danger of this approach, which I agree with, is that when we delay until the earthquake has happened, it is too late.

So what should we do? We must reduce the "tectonic stresses". As we review that list, however, we remember that they are some doozies. While managing solutions have their place, the author also suggests the "prospective mind". This is where he loses me a bit...I'm not 100% sure what he means, so I'll give you a summation paragraph:

The alternative approach I advocate requires us to adopt what I've termed a prospective mind. We need to be comfortable with constant change, radical surprise, and even breakdown, because these are now inevitable features of our world, and we must constantly anticipate a wide variety of futures. With a prospective mind we'll be better able to turn surprise and breakdown,when they happen, to our advantage. In other words, we'll be better able to achieve what I call catagenesis - the creative renewal of our technologies, institutions and societies in the aftermath of breakdown.

So basically we need to be flexible so we can quickly rebound when TSHTF. It is a really good idea, but I guess I was expecting a bit more...perhaps some more solid examples on what to do. I still see the only "upside to down" is if you really hate our society now and want to rebuild it more to your liking. As I said before, that's not exactly the uplifting story I was looking for, but hey, these are crazy times. Overall, I give the book a reserved recommendation.

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World Energy Outlook 2008

Just when we're getting used to falling oil prices, the Financial Times says the International Energy Agency (IEA) gives a decidedly pessimistic view in a preview of its World Energy Outlook 2008.

Output from the world's oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows.

Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.

The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term de-mand. The effort will become even more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.

The IEA, the oil watchdog, forecasts that China, India and other developing countries' demand will require investments of $360bn (£230bn) each year until 2030. The agency says even with investment, the annual rate of output decline is 6.4 per cent.

The decline will not necessarily be felt in the next few years because demand is slowing down, but with the expected slowdown in investment the eventual effect will be magnified, oil executives say.

However, the IEA came out with a statement rebutting the early report:

The WEO is due to be published next month. The IEA said the FT article "appeared to be based on an early version of a draft from several months ago that was subsequently revised and updated."

It added: "The numbers in the article can be misleading and should not be quoted or considered to be official IEA results," the IEA said.

I guess we will have to wait for the full final report to make our own conclusions. The World Energy Outlook 2008 is due out on November 12, but the Table of Contents can be currently found here.

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The Self-Sufficiency Handbook - and a Few "Deep Thoughts"

The Self-Sufficiency Handbook: A Complete Guide to Greener Living. Alan and Gill Bridgewater.

As I have said many times before, I truly doubt the existence of a complete self-sufficiency book. While this text boldly proclaims as such in the title, I have not yet been proved wrong. This handbook has a lot of great information, but it is rather thin...and would serve best as only a light introduction to self-sufficiency. It would not be undesirable in a library, but hardly necessary. For those so inclined, I have two superior recommendations here and here. I would not have even written a review, however the opening paragraph struck me, and I want to share it - and my thoughts - with you.

When Gill and I graduated from art school in the 1960s, the whole place was buzzing with a new kind of freedom. Somehow we all felt that we could do it - meaning life - better than previous generations. I remember one evening sitting in a college common room listening to two young, hippy, American lecturers animatedly talking about how very soon we would all be forced by the failure of oil supplies to return to some sort of Amish type self-sufficiency - log cabins maybe, horses rather than cars, communes where groups of like-minded people pulled together to create a better society - and it was very exciting.

As they saw it, and as whole swathes of people saw it, our consumer society was living off the fast shrinking capital resources of the earth. Their thinking was that ever since the start of the industrial revolution we had been taking and dumping: taking the coal and dumping the waste, taking the oil and dumping pollution, taking the goodness from the soil and leaving it barren, cutting down trees, and so on.

The authors continue on, explaining how this shaped their desire to live in a self-sufficient and less ecologically impacting manner. They then spent the next 30-40 years of their lives scrounging around, trying to make ends meet. As I also have stated before, the romanticism of self-sufficiency does not fool me. I don't find it that exciting and I do not think it would be an ideal way to live. Anyway, the introduction instantly struck me in two ways:

1. Maybe there really is no urgent problem
2. Crying wolf...and its ramifications

First off, my gut reaction was, "Man, people really have been screaming, 'The end is nigh!' for a long time." Maybe all the people screaming about it now really are full of it, too. Maybe peak oil and global warming are not that big of a deal...and if they are, maybe they are decades or centuries away from affecting us.

Then, that little seed of doubt creeps back in. Perhaps the hippies back then were right all along, just off in the time frame. My mind continues to file through all the evidence that I have complied during the short amount of time that I have concerned myself with such matters. Yes, peak oil must be real, and the while the time frame is up for debate, the one that I have settled on is definitely within my lifetime, or at least the next generation's.

Global warming is a challenge that I have yet to tackle, and I am not a climatologist. I will have to default to the consensus of current scientific opinion and Al Gore. I fear that it is real, it is man-made, and due to the Tragedy of the Commons, it may be inevitable. The time frame on climate change is very much up for debate as well, due to its extremely complex and variable nature; but if you watch the Discovery Channel, you know it is coming pretty soon - and will not be pretty.

So, the long standing cries from environmentalist and other scientists may have been 'spot on' the entire time. Perhaps it was the relevance time between the earth's geologic clock and the 24-hr news cycle that has caused the disconnect. And ultimately, the fable of the "Boy Who Cried Wolf" seems rather fitting; and rather disturbing, considering the end result.

These are the two extremes I continue to wrestle with. And as I have argued in the past, few things in life are black and white. For my own benefit, (and hopefully yours) I will continue to attempt to search through the gray area. Depending on the source, you can get pretty good (and bad) arguments from both sides. There are folks with full time jobs that research these issues, as well as those that literally devote their entire lives to finding the truth. How can the layman be expected to sort through it all? I suppose all we can do is just continue to plug along; hoping for the best and preparing for some version of the worst.

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Global Trends 2025

Editors Note: for those looking for the final report, see here.

Here is an unsettling report, from the Washington Post:

The presidential candidates will soon receive a briefing from our nation's Intelligence Community with the upcoming 'Global Trends 2025', an overview of international factors that will shape our world and our place in it. Dr. Thomas Fingar, the chairman of the National Intelligence Council, recently gave a preview of the key findings. It is not a cheery picture.

"The U.S. will remain the preeminent power, but that American dominance will be much diminished," Fingar said, according to a transcript of the Thursday speech. He saw U.S. leadership eroding "at an accelerating pace" in "political, economic and arguably, cultural arenas."

In the years ahead, Washington will no longer be in a position to dictate what new global structures will look like. Nor will any other country, Fingar said. "There is no nobody in a position . . . to take the lead and institute the changes that almost certainly must be made in the international system," he said.

The predicted shift toward a less U.S.-centric world will come at a time when the planet is facing a growing environmental crisis, caused largely by climate change, Fingar said. By 2025, droughts, food shortages and scarcity of fresh water will plague large swaths of the globe, from northern China to the Horn of Africa.

Floods and droughts will trigger mass migrations and political upheaval in many parts of the developing world. But among industrialized states, declining birthrates will create new economic stresses as populations become grayer. In China, Japan and Europe, the ratio of working adults to seniors "begins to approach one to three," he said.

The United States will fare better than many other industrial powers, in part because it is relatively more open to immigration. Newcomers will inject into the U.S. economy a vitality that will be absent in much of Europe and Japan -- countries that are "on a good day, highly chauvinistic," he said.

Energy security will also become a major issue as India, China and other countries join the United States in seeking oil, gas and other sources for electricity. The Chinese get a good portion of their oil from Iran, as do many U.S. allies in Europe, limiting U.S. options on Iran. "So the turn-the-spigot-off kind of thing -- even if we could do it -- would be counterproductive."

I look forward to the actual "Global Trends 2025" report, due out later this year. But the key notes are chilling enough. Reports like these really cause me concern. This is not some crazy doomer on a wacko peak oil message board. This is a consensus of top American Intelligence Community officials. Perhaps no matter how much we wish that The Long Emergency or Long Road Down are only apocalyptic fantasy, they may be reality. And that reality may be sooner than we realize...


Other Global Trends Posts:
Global Trends 2025
Global Trends Update
Global Trends Update II
Globalization and the Crash of '08
Demographics of Discord
Timing is Everything
Winners and Losers in a Post-Petroleum World
Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty
Final Thoughts

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The Long Road Down

This is another interesting take on the future. It is a somewhat novel approach to figuring out what will happen as our bonanza of fossil fuels begins to dry up. The author takes both the doomers and cornucopians to task:

Most people would notice something odd if two meteorologists, discussing tomorrow's weather on a wet autumn day, ignored all possibilities except clear weather or a sudden snowstorm. Yet the same sort of illogic goes unchallenged in debates about our future. Thus it's crucial to set aside our assumptions, and look at what actually happens when civilizations run into the limits of their resource base. That's happened many times in the past, but technological spurts and sudden collapses are rare. Far more common is a process nobody thinks about nowadays: decline.

He also delineates these two mindsets a bit further:

The first is called the progressivist myth. According to this story, all of human history is a drama of progress. From primitive ignorance and savagery, according to the progressivist myth, people climbed step by step up the ladder of civilization. Knowledge gathered over generations made it possible for each culture to go further than the ones before it. With modern times, progress went into overdrive, and it's still in overdrive today. The purpose of human existence is to make this upward climb possible so that our descendants can someday reach the stars.

The second is called the separativist myth. According to this story, all of human history is a tragic blind alley. Once people lived in harmony with their world, each other, and themselves, but that time ended and things have gone downhill ever since. Vast cities governed by bloated bureaucracies, inhabited by people who have abandoned spiritual values for a wholly material existence, mark the point of no return. Sometime soon the whole rickety structure will come crashing down, overwhelmed by sudden crisis, and countless people will die. Only those who abandon a corrupt and doomed society will survive to build a better world.

Both the progressivist myth and the separativist myth have powerful emotional appeal; that's why they're popular. The myth of perpetual progress comforts those people who have made their peace with society as it is, and who want to believe that their lives are part of a process which leads eventually to better things. The myth of imminent apocalypse comforts those people who cannot accept society as it is, and want to believe in a catastrophe that topples the proud towers of a civilization they loathe. Still, the fact that a belief is emotionally powerful and comforting doesn't make it true.

While these two mindsets are prevalent, the author presents his view of the future...a long decline. This is not a unique viewpoint, as it is very similar to Kunstler's The Long Emergency. For my dollar, it is also not really that different from the doomer's philosophy, the only thing that differs is the time frame. If western civilization suffers a quick collapse or a long slow death, it is still dead. I suppose if it happens slowly enough that no one really notices, it is a tad better. Not something to really hang your hat on.

The final section, however, gives me a bit of optimism...

A different future requires a different kind of thinking. The crucial needs that must be met in an age of decline are damage control, cultural survival, and the building of a new society amid the ruins of the old. Political and business interests aren't going to meet these needs, or do anything else helpful; oil is to the modern industrial nations what corn was to the ancient Maya, and the ahauob of Washington and Wall Street have turned to war just as their Maya equivalents did. Fortunately, all three needs can be met by individuals and small groups with limited resources, and projects of this kind are being done on a small scale already.

Organic farming is an excellent case in point. In the last century organic agriculture has made immense strides, to the point that it's now possible to grow a spare but adequate diet year round for one person on less than 1000 square feet of soil, with only hand labor and no fossil fuel inputs at all, and do it while increasing the long term fertility of the soil. These methods may turn out to be our civilization's greatest gift to the future, provided they survive the approaching age of decline. Today they're covered in detail in dozens of books; whether that will be true in a hundred years depends on what we do right now.

I find myself in the middle of all these philosophies. I have cautious optimism about the future, yet feel that taking measures preparing for much harder times are not wasted efforts. Perhaps we can take clues from the past and apply them to the future. I believe that a slow transition from fossil fuels will give us time to adapt. Our market based economy will allow innovation of alternatives...they may never be as cheap as oil once was, but we may be able to bridge the gap.

We must not look to government or corporations for our salvation. We must rely on ourselves. If we are really relying on technology to be our salvation, invest in it...with both human and financial capital. Live within your means. Learn skills that will benefit yourself and your community. Teach your children...they will need guidance in the years ahead.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/4624

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The Self-Sufficient Life

The Self Sufficient Life and How to Live It by John Seymour. Recommended.

Doomer Alert: I have been trying to expand my knowledge of simpler times, in the off chance that peak oil (or any one of the other ulcer-forming scenarios) really does end civilization as we know it. So far this has consisted of checking out a variety of library books on the following topics: gardening, alternative energy sources, food preservation, organic agriculture/horticulture, survival, and overall self sufficiency. Many of these books I found to be of little-to-no use, so I have not been posting reviews. I do believe this book has merit, dear reader, so I thought I would take the time to share it with you.

I will preface this review with the following comments. I doubt that there is any complete self-sufficiency guide. This book comes pretty close to the mark. It spans a wide range of topics and each topic has a good amount of depth. I tend to think of this book as an overarching primer, that would give you a starting point to begin research in each specific arena. (You aren't going to become an expert/competent bee-keeper after reading one page about it) Obviously, each topic most likely has volumes written about it, so to think that one book cold completely cover all the topics that a human would need to be totally self-sufficient is asking a little much. With that said, I will outline the book's many topics:

1. Overview of Self-Sufficiency
2. Food from the Garden
3. Food from Animals
4. Food from the Fields
5. Food from the Wild
6. Dairy Processes
7. Kitchen Skills
8. Brewing/Winemaking
9. Energy and Waste
10. Crafts and other skills
11. Contacts and References

The book is very rich in detailed illustrations (DK Press), but no photographs. The author is British, which 'colours' the narrative a bit, but not so much as to detract from the utility of the work. I especially enjoyed the section where he describes how he would set up homesteads of various sizes. It provides an excellent overview of how one would go about starting:

An Urban Garden
A Community Garden
A One-Acre Farm
A Five-Acre Farm

I also enjoyed the gardening section, which delineated the development of seedlings, planting, and harvesting of many vegetable and fruit varieties. Also of note was the description of small scale farming of grains and root crops in fields, as well as suggestions for crop rotation.

The book shows us there are many things to learn if one was to consider being completely self-sufficient. The main thing I learned was that: I don't want to have to become completely self-sufficient. For some, it may conjure up romantic images of Little House on the Prairie, but honestly, it would stink. I know, people have been doing it for thousands of years; heck, large portions of our population lived this way less than 2 generations ago. I give my respect to those hardy souls, but I would prefer not to be tested in such a way.

Fortunately, I do not think that it is guaranteed (or even really likely) that my family or I will ever be forced to become entirely self-sufficient. This does not mean it is not wise to begin to learn several sets of these skills. If a long term recession/depression hits the US/world, many of these skills could make a huge difference in overall quality of life. So, I will continue to research these topics, and share them with the few folks that happen to stumble upon these words.

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7 Dollar Gas?

Here's a little more pessimism for you. This report, by CIBC World Markets, predicts $150-200/barrel oil and $6-7.00 gasoline in the next two years. The report also predicts that these prices will remove millions of cars from the roads; primarily older, less fuel efficient vehicles owned by the poor.

As gasoline prices climb inexorably, American driving habits are going to have to undergo a massive change, mimicking the driving habits long adopted by Europeans who have faced much higher gas prices. Average miles driven will likely fall by as much as 15%, while the market share of light trucks, SUVs and vans will be literally halved, reversing the trend of the last fifteen years. But the most fundamental, and unprecedented change will be in the number of vehicles on the road.

Over the next four years, we are likely to witness the greatest mass exodus of vehicles off America’s highways in history. By 2012, there should be some 10 million fewer vehicles on American roadways than there are today—a decline that dwarfs all previous adjustments including those during the two OPEC oil shocks (see pages 4-8). Many of those in the exit lane will be low income Americans from households earning less than $25,000 per year. Incredibly, over 10 million of those American households own more than one car.

Soon they won’t own any.

The article also touches on alternatives, mainly public transportation. We in America have loathed public transportation. There are many reasons for this. For one, we enjoy our freedom...to travel when, where, how and with whom we so choose. As this luxury becomes more expensive, many of us will no longer be able to have this freedom. The question then becomes, "Will we have any alternatives?".

Is this a realistic estimate? While $7 per gallon gasoline prices certainly took people off the road in Europe, you cannot simply impose Europe on America. Most
Europeans have access to public transport by virtue of the broad infrastructure policies European countries have pursued. In marked contrast, America built massive highways and freeways for a population that owned and used their own cars to get around.

Hence we must narrow our focus on those Americans where a European style shift in driving habits is currently feasible. People can’t simply abandon their cars if they
have no other means of getting around, particularly in terms of getting work. There must be at least a public transport alternative.

I agree with this assessment, and also offer this observation. Sure, we have invested heavily in roads rather than rail...we have made our bed and now must lay in it...but, population densities are much higher in Europe. We can leverage public transportation in high density areas, but the rural poor will have much fewer options. Well managed, sensible public transportation should be part of the solution, but it will only be a portion. We must employ a wide range of alternatives to keep our nation strong.

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IEA Issues New Pessimistic Oil Outlook

Here is the press release from the International Energy Agency's latest Medium-Term Oil Market Report. (It appears the actual report costs 400 Euro, so I won't be commenting on that)

Some interesting highlights:

Supply

Supply growth deriving from a concentration of new project start-ups during 2008-2010, allied to weaker economic growth, sees potential spare capacity rise in excess of 4 mb/d. However, this expansion slows from 2011 onwards when global demand growth recovers, leading to a narrowing of spare capacity to minimal levels by 2013. Since the 2007 MTOMR, significant downward revisions have been made to both non-OPEC supplies and OPEC capacity forecasts. Project delays averaging 12 months, coupled with global average decline of 5.2% - up from 4% last year – are the factors behind these revisions. Over 3.5 mb/d of new production will be needed each year just to hold global production steady. “Our findings highlight again the need for sustained, and indeed, increased investment both upstream and downstream -- to assure that the market is adequately supplied,” stated Mr. Tanaka.

Biofuels

Although biofuels will add to supply growth, increasing from 1.35 mb/d in 2008 to 1.95 mb/d by 2013, announced capacity additions may be difficult to achieve given available feedstock and growing concerns due to rising food prices. “Biofuels have helped to diversify energy supply. They cannot be blamed for all of the increase in grain prices, even if they have had an impact. However, we remain cautious in regard to the future growth of 1st generation biofuels as there will be growing competition for feedstocks and we see increased difficulties to expansion of biofuels in some places,” said Mr. Tanaka.

Demand

Global demand for oil products will grow by an average of 1.6% per year to 2013, from 86.9 mb/d in 2008 to 94.1 mb/d. ... “Developing countries will drive demand growth, their total consumption equalling that of mature economies by 2015.” Asia, the Middle East and Latin America will account for nearly 90% of demand growth over the five-year forecast period.

These are not comforting messages. These, along with comments earlier this week by OPEC leaders about $170-180/barrel oil, seem to lend credence to the opinion that gas prices are not going down any time soon. ...Not to mention the increased tension with Iran. Just when I start to get a little optimistic...

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Black Gold & Ice Road Truckers

I've been intrigued by these two reality shows; the second season of Ice Road Truckers on the History Channel and the inaugural season of Black Gold on truTV. They both have a lot in common: both are produced by the same guy who brought you The Deadliest Catch, both feature really dangerous jobs and both highlight the difficulty of retrieving the fossil fuels on which our everyday lives depend. Both do a good job of driving this home, as well as featuring enough characters and typical reality show drama to keep it interesting.

Ice Road Truckers

In Alaska and northern Canada, there are a number of mining, oil drilling, and natural gas extraction sites. These operations are only accessible by truck for a short windows during the winter months...on frozen ice roads constructed on rivers or the arctic ocean. Ice Road Truckers follows several of the brave drivers that haul many tons of equipment hundreds of miles over only several feet of ice. It is dangerous work, but there is big money to be made...the drilling and mining operations desperately require the equipment and supplies they haul. Without them, the operations quickly grind to a halt and they are unable to provide their products to the world.

Black Gold
Black Gold is a look at Texan 'wildcat' oil rig operations. It follows three competing derricks and the teams of 'drillers' and 'roughnecks' that operate them, providing insight into the dangerous and dirty job of recovering oil. This show demonstrates the numerous difficulties in these operations; the rigs are expensive to operate ($2000 per hour), the work is extremely dangerous and a seeming infinite number of problems can arise. There is also a cameo appearance by Matthew Mcconaughey's brother, Rooster. Rooster is an oil pipe supplier, and apparently a heavy drinker/skeet shooting enthusiast. See more here

Both of these programs highlight the increasing difficulties that we will continue to face as fossil fuels become more scarce. We will have to drill deeper and in more harsh climates than ever before. Men such as these will be the trailblazers that make it possible.

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The Geopolitics of $130 Oil

Today I am featuring an article that examines the ramifications of recent increases in commodity prices. It argues that we are entering a new geopolitical era; following the previous eras of the Cold War, post-Cold war economic boom, and subsequent period of international Islamic fundamentalist terror from 9/11 to today.

This new era of increased commodity cost will present many challenges - with oil and food being the major players, owing to the fact that they are inextricably linked and our daily lives are dependent on both.

Oil and grains — where the shortages hit hardest — are not merely strategic commodities. They are geopolitical commodities. All nations require them, and a shift in the price or availability of either triggers shifts in relationships within and among nations.

The article highlights the potential winners and losers in this new paradigm. Their conclusions may surprise you a bit.

One thing to keep in mind...just because we have perhaps moved into a new era does not mean that the problems from previous areas are solved, only superseded. Just as 9/11 did not erase economic issues, high commodity prices have not destroyed Islamic extremism. Perhaps the fact that it has the potential to move the issue to the back burner is even more concerning. Considering the majority of known oil reserves are in areas that are highly accessible to terrorism, we should not neglect the risk posed by these entities. Even our old cold war adversary, flush with oil and natural gas (and willing to use it as a geopolitical tool), is gaining ground.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/geopolitics_130_oil

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Scramble and Blueprints

Here is an interesting take on the future describing two divergent paths, Scramble and Blueprints. This 8 minute movie, produced by Shell, highlights the need for intelligent, quick, and decisive action from all of the world's inhabitants.

Scramble

In the Scramble world, events out pace actions. Security of energy supply and fears of losing economic ground shape decision-making. For the next 10 years, people from all walks of life join in the debate about energy and climate change. But no one seems truly wedded to action on a large scale.

In the Scramble world, no one is prepared to change the status quo. Dealing with today’s problem takes priority. By the 2020s, life has become volatile and uncertain. Energy availability is often tight. Severe weather events are blamed on a lack of previous action on climate change. The public cries out. And governments in the different regions respond in different ways – but without consistency or cohesion.

Blueprints

The world of Blueprints shows what can happen when actions out pace events...This isn’t a sudden outbreak of altruism. It’s a recognition of shared interests, new opportunities for profitable business, and the benefits of taking action before it’s forced by circumstances.

In the world of Blueprints, local actions spread and join up –- like the C40 megacities pact of mayors and others, experimenting and sharing good practices around carbon emissions, transport and energy efficiency. During the next decade, the Blueprints world is diverse. Different parts use different approaches to promote energy efficiency, and technology development. Some choose taxes. Others use mandates. Some look for voluntary action by businesses and consumers. The most successful approaches spread. However, the diversity makes life difficult for investment. Pressure is created on local, national and international authorities to harmonize arrangements better.

I would like to highlight that bio-fuels are an important factor in both scenarios. All in all, the entire video is very optimistic...even the Scramble scenario has a happy ending...

Eventually a new, more positive phase emerges. Enforced steps to reduce energy demand gradually have an effect. …Individual, local efforts to promote renewable energy sources start to pay off. Renewables become well enough established, and on a large enough scale, to be competitive.

No doomer die-off in Shell's future. I guess that would not be a positive PR campaign.

As for how it is really going to play out, I know which scenario sounds more realistic. Surely, if we cannot get the American people to agree on anything, how can the entire world come together in a unified fashion. The scramble scenario certainly sounds like the path we are currently on. Perhaps it may end up being a combination of the two. Only time will tell.

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More Peak Oil - Hirsch Report

Here is another report on peak oil by Dr. Robert Hirsch (2005). The link below is actually a brief summary of a larger Department of Energy report which I have not yet finished. The summary covers all the basic peak oil points, but has as interesting passage regarding mitigation that I would like to highlight here.

A scenario analysis was performed, based on crash program implementation worldwide – the fastest humanly possible. Three starting dates were considered:

1. When peaking occurs;
2. Ten years before peaking occurs; and
3. Twenty years before peaking.

The timing of oil peaking was left open because of the considerable differences of opinion among experts. Consideration of a number of implementation scenarios provided some fundamental insights, as follows:

• Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program
action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more
than two decades.
• Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil
peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall
roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.
• Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking offers
the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the
forecast period.

The reason why such long lead times are required is that the worldwide
scale of oil consumption is enormous – a fact often lost in a world where
oil abundance has been taken for granted for so long. If mitigation is too
little, too late, world supply/demand balance will have to be achieved
through massive demand destruction (shortages), which would translate to
extreme economic hardship. On the other hand, with timely mitigation,
economic damage can be minimized.

As I highlighted in this post, most expert studies have predicted peak oil dates ranging from now until 2030. In all but the most optimistic studies, we are within the 20 year time frame. Many factors will come into play...conventional vs. unconventional oil sources, other alternatives as well as conservation efforts reducing demand and consumption. Hirsch then makes an astute point concerning the risk vs. reward for (in)action:

It is possible that peaking may not occur for a decade or more, but it is also possible that peaking may be occurring right now. We will not know for certain until after the fact. The world is thus faced with a daunting risk management problem. On the one hand, if peaking is decades away, massive mitigation initiated soon would be premature. On the other hand, if peaking is imminent, failure to quickly initiate mitigation will impose large near term economic and social costs on the world.

The two risks are asymmetric:
• Mitigation initiated prematurely would result in a relatively modest
misallocation of resources.
• Failure to initiate timely mitigation with an appropriate lead-time is
certain to result in very severe economic consequences.

The world has never confronted a problem like this. Risk minimization requires the implementation of mitigation measures well prior to peaking. Since it is uncertain when peaking will occur, the challenge for decisionmakers is indeed vexing. Mustering support for an invisible disaster is much more difficult than for one that is obvious to all.

Interesting times ahead...

http://www.acus.org/docs/051007-Hirsch_World_Oil_Production.pdf

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Collapse

Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond. Highly recommended.

The Pulitzer prize winning author Jared Diamond of Guns, Germs and Steel is back with an examination of societies of the past and today, and how they deal with challenges that can lead to their collapse. While there are 5 main reasons that he examines, the book looks heavily into environmental degradation as a leading cause for many civilizations' demises.

Diamond is well versed in many subjects and this book showcases his knowledge. One of the remarkable qualities of the book is the ability of the author to see the many sides of problems and not become entrenched on any one side of the issue. While he certainly takes the large mining and oil companies to task for certain inexcusable environmental disasters, he is very fair and balanced. While many environmentalists are fundamentally opposed to such business ventures, Diamond not only acknowledges their necessary contributions to society, but also their fundamental right to exist as a profit making enterprise. He even mentions his surprise at the strict environmental standards that Chevron had implemented at one of their sites:

For months I was greatly puzzled by these conditions in the Kuntubu oil field.
After all, Chevron is neither a non-profit environmental organization, nor a
National Park Service. Instead it is a for-profit oil company, owned by its shareholders. If Chevron were to spend money on environmental policies that ultimately decreased its profits from oil operations, its shareholders would and should sue it. The company evidently decided that those policies would ultimately help it make more money from its oil operations.

So Diamond is neither in the pocket of the oil companies nor a raving green hippie. He delivers a clear and concise message, however. Ignore the environment at our peril.

Here are the five reasons for past collapses:
1. Environment Degradation
2. Climate Change (man-made and natural)
3. Hostile Neighbors
4. Decreased Support from Friendly Neighbors
5. Society's Responses to Environmental Problems

All of history's collapses may not have had all of these factors, but all of the societies the author examines were affected by at least several of them.

Here is the list of societies investigated, with a few comments on some of my favorites:

Modern Montana

Easter Island-
Without written history, we have limited knowledge of this mysterious society. Over several hundred years, they seemingly deforested their remote island to provide food for a growing population and to erect larger and larger monuments in a evident inter-tribal competition. Too far from other islands, they had nearly died off by the time Europeans arrived, who quickly eliminated even more of them with disease.

Other pacific islands: Pitcairn and Henderson
Native Americans: Anasazi and neighbors
Mayans
Vikings
Iceland

Norse Greenlanders-
A hardscrabble group of exiled Norsemen lived for hundreds of years on the forbidding landscape of Greenland (as well as being the first to reach North America). Their stubbornness to cling to European ideals and inability to adopt Inuit technologies eventually led to their downfall as the climate grew colder over several decades.

New Guinea
Tikiopia

Japan-
Japanese shoguns realized the implications of deforestation and enacted laws to reverse its course.

Rwanda-
A horrible, horrible story.

Dominican Republic/Haiti
China

Australia-
Recent food crises are partially due to decreased wheat exports from Australia. According to Diamond, we should not expect much change in the future. Australia has such little economical farm land that it could go from a net exporter of food to net importer in the near future. Poor soil, mismanagement and introduced pests have wreaked havoc on Australia. Not an uplifting chapter.

Diamond then ties his thoughts together in the final chapters with practical lessons and the following subjects:

Why some societies make good and bad decisions.
Different business and how they interface with the public and environment (Oil, mining, logging, and seafood industries)
Ultimately, he draws up 12 vital areas that we must be vigilant against today:

1. Preserving Natural Habitats
2. Sustainable maintenance of wild food sources (mainly seafood)
3. Maintain biodiversity
4. Protect farmland from degradation (erosion, salination, etc)
5. Reliance/dependence on finite fossil fuels
6. Water issues
7. Earth's photosynthetic capability
8. Toxic Chemicals
9. Harmful alien species (introduced non-native plants and animals, not ET)
10. Atmospheric gas releases
11. Population Issues
12. Per capita environmental impact

He makes the point that since they are all very interconnected, we must treat each with care. Any failure in any one of these areas could spell major trouble to our civilization. And unlike the ancient Easter Islanders, we are now a global community. We are all on a remote island...the Earth. Will we obliviously continue to build larger and larger statues until we no longer can support ourselves? Or will we take the lessons from those that have come before us, both those that have failed and succeeded, and triumph over the coming obstacles? Time will tell.

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Peak Oil Analysis - A Hubbert Model Rebuttal

Here is an article shedding doubt on several recent peak oil projections. The author, Michael C. Lynch, goes about debunking several of the more doomsdayish projections currently cited in peak oil discussions. Primarily, these are based upon M. King Hubbert's work, who very accurately predicted the peak of U.S. oil reserves. The one issue I have with this article is that while it does a good job of casting doubt on several studies, it makes no predictions of its own.

The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers) by Michael C. Lynch

A rather quick read, but heavy on statistics. I admit I have not extensively read the studies that this paper 'debunks'. So little time...

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Government Accountability Office - Peak Oil Report Feb '07

As I have stated in previous posts, I am certain oil is a finite resource and will run out. Also, our current civilization is heavily dependent on oil for even our most basic necessities. The severity of the effects of the depletion of the world's oil will depend on several factors:

1. When it occurs
2. How quickly it occurs
3. How demand and consumption respond to it occurring
4. The availability, supply and price of alternatives

These are the factors that I am not certain.

Many people are very certain of these factors, unfortunately few of them agree. They all cannot be correct. Hence, one of the reasons I began my amateur research and ultimately this very blog. So, I continue my search for reliable data to make my predictions and share them here.

I found a report by the GAO (a hopefully unbiased and balanced source) from early last year that:

(1) examined when oil production could peak,
(2) assessed the potential for transportation technologies to mitigate the consequences of a peak in oil production, and
(3) examined federal agency efforts that could reduce
uncertainty about the timing of a peak or mitigate the consequences. To address
these objectives, GAO reviewed studies, convened an expert panel, and consulted
agency officials.

It can be found here:

CRUDE OIL
Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production

It is a rather comprehensive report that examines many of the issues I am currently interested in. It covers the following main topics: key peak oil studies, the difficulty in determining peak oil, and key technologies to enhance oil supply and displace oil consumption in the transportation sector.

Key Peak Oil Studies:

This is the main reason I am highlighting this study. I, like many others, would really like to know when we are going to begin to run out of oil (my 'nocs would be in focus at that point). Over 20 separate independent peak oil studies were examined. The entire list can be found in the appendix. This graph shows the disparity in consensus:

As one can see, the studies predictions ranged from peaking right now to some time in the next century. My rough estimate (hardly a rigorous statistical method) would be to take the mean or median of these wide range of experts. That would put us in the early 2020 time frame for a 'peak' of oil production. One might wonder about the reasons for such a wide range of results. The study examined that as well.

Difficulty in Determining Peak Oil:

The difficulties in determining peak oil can be broken down into several main reasons.

(1) The amount of oil in the ground is uncertain. The entire earth has not been surveyed. Even results from areas that have been surveyed are not always public knowledge. Many OPEC producers keep reserve data secret. So, we have to guess if they are declining production to moderate the price or because there is actually declining reserves. The report suggests that we fund more studies to better determine reserves.

(2) The definition of 'oil'. There are many definitions for 'oil', which are encompassed by light, heavy, conventional, non-conventional and others. These definitions are not universal and many of the studies use different definitions. The GAO study touches on this disparity (some heavy oil is considered to be conventional, while others consider it non-conventional). It also notes that this nomenclature changes over time. I do not attempt to claim I fully understand the differences.

(3) Political and investment risk factors also could affect future oil exploration and production and, ultimately, the timing of peak oil production. A large percentage of the world's remaining oil is in unstable political areas. This in and of itself is a reason to begin to believe peak oil is coming sooner rather than later. Oil may not have actually 'peaked', but it may 'virtually' peak if the Saudi monarchy is overrun by Al Qaeda. If the oil costs more energy to extract than it contains, it is effectively not there.

(4)Future world demand is uncertain. Will demand continue to increase, even when the price increases? Oil demand seems to be inelastic in the short run, but rather elastic in the long run. Americans are already consuming less gasoline in response to increased prices. Will the world follow suit?

(5) Technological, cost, and environmental challenges make it unclear how much oil can ultimately be recovered from (1) proven reserves, (2) hard-to-reach locations, and (3) nonconventional sources (normally defined as shale oil, tar sands, heavy and extra-heavy oil).

Technologies:

There are two areas of technology that this study examines: Increasing production and decreasing consumption (only in the sector with the largest demand - transportation)

The technologies for increasing oil production were new to me, as I have little background in the oil industry. I found it very interesting. They include things such as deep water and ultra deep water wells/platforms and injection technologies (steam, water, CO2). One disturbing point was raised - certain fields that are not expolotied using advanced techniques are forever limited in the amount of oil that is recoverable. Many foreign state-run oil companies do not use the latest advanced techniques, thus lowering the amount of oil ultimately available for recovery.

As for key technologies that may help us in curbing consumption, it does not break much new ground, but gives various figures and reasons on costs, benefits and challenges of many technologies I have already talked about in previous posts (bio fuels, hydrogen, coal Gas-To-Liquid, hybrids, PHEVs, EVs, etc). One caveat: the price of oil was under $70/barrel in February 2007, which clouds any economic viability discussions.

All in all, I found this to be a great primer for peak oil. It is not overly 'doomsdayish', provides a lists of challenges as well as suggestions for government to begin to look for solutions. For some it may be too little, but I think it is a good start. A must read for budding 'peak oilers'.

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Peak Oil Debunked

I just stumbled upon another blog that has been examining similar issues for quite a long time and has quite a readership. He, a self-proclaimed realist, has gone through the wide range of emotions and thought processes that I am currently attempting to sort out for myself. I highly recommend reading this for a rebuttal for the Kunstler/doomsday crowd. It is a 'realists' perspective: everything may not turn out to be moonbeams and rainbows, but it will not be the end of modern civilization, either. I have been trying to sort out exactly what is going to happen, and how bad it is going to be. It is important to consider a wide range of sources, opinions and viewpoints while maintaining a level head.

'Peak Oil Debunked' is a bit of a misnomer, he is not arguing oil is a infinite resource that will never be depleted. From my initial readings, he is merely providing another point of view that sometimes clashes with the current 'doomsday' crowd. I, too, am attempting to find that balance.

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2006/07/307-confessions-of-ex-doomer.html

An excerpt:

The doomers may or may not be correct about our inability to switch the
energy basis of our civilization, but their case is far from proven. The mere
fact that people are debating what to do shows that a lot of people (even the
doomers) don't believe the future is totally out of our hands. The track record
of doomsday forecasts is poor - no one can really know the future. The smug
certaintly of the doomers that they've got all the answers is what finally shook
me out from their midst. The doomers are right about one thing - fossil energy
sources aren't going to see us through the 21rst century. But if we don't change
course soon, the way forward isn't going to be an agrarian utopia. It will be
powered, at least in the US and for the remainder of my life, by coal. The
environmental effects of that (primarily sea level rise from global warming)
aren't the legacy I want to leave to future generations.

If going back to the land is appealing to you, that's terrific! No one's
stopping you, or any of the doomers either. In fact, it's a good thing to have
people make some worst-case preperations, just in case the doomers are right.
But if, like me, you think technological and industrial civilization is
something worth preserving, then let's get to work. Don't be fooled by doomer
technobabble. This stuff isn't really too hard for the average person to
understand. Look for yourself. And not just at the self-serving prophets of
doom, many of whom simply cite each other in a kind of circular support system.
Check your prejudices at the door and actually look at sites from the nuclear
power industry, renewable power advocates, and environmentalists. Sift them for
biases to get to the facts. And keep thinking for yourself.

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The Citizen-Powered Energy Handbook

The Citizen-Powered Energy Handbook: Community Solutions to a Global Crisis, Greg Pahl

As conventional energy sources begin to dwindle, we will need to rely heavily on renewable and alternative sources to provide the basic services we once took for granted. Researching and employing these sources can be a daunting task. This book provides a basic tutorial on many of these sources as well as strategies for adaptation for individuals, small businesses and communities. As the title suggests, it is geared heavily for small communities, so many of the projects highlighted are at a larger scale than the individual homeowner. Still, I found it to have some good information.

The first chapters recap reasons why we desperately need alternative energy sources, namely peak oil. The author references The Long Emergency as an inspiration for this volume, however takes a more optimistic tack than Kunstler. While Kunstler goes out of his way to denigrate every possible alternative source, Pahl details how each of these sources are being used right now...and what the future may hold.

The book covers the following topics: solar, wind, water, biomass, liquid biofuels and geothermal. Each topic is viewed from a small community point of view, with many examples of current projects. Unfortunately, the book does not delve much into cost analysis, only showing projects in the most positive light. If these projects are cost efficient or not is left up to the reader to research for himself. In the author's defense, cost benefit analysis varies greatly on a case by case basis, and has many variables to consider.

For the casual reader, this book is not a must read. It does, however, provide a strong background in the majority of current alternative energy sources. If one is contemplating alternative sources for a small business, farm or community...I would recommend it. Also it would benefit local governmental leaders; mayors, city councils, home owner association boards, school boards, etc.

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