Friday, June 20, 2008

Scramble and Blueprints

Here is an interesting take on the future describing two divergent paths, Scramble and Blueprints. This 8 minute movie, produced by Shell, highlights the need for intelligent, quick, and decisive action from all of the world's inhabitants.

In the Scramble world, events out pace actions. Security of energy supply and fears of losing economic ground shape decision-making. For the next 10 years, people from all walks of life join in the debate about energy and climate change. But no one seems truly wedded to action on a large scale.
In the Scramble world, no one is prepared to change the status quo. Dealing with today’s problem takes priority. By the 2020s, life has become volatile and uncertain. Energy availability is often tight. Severe weather events are blamed on a lack of previous action on climate change. The public cries out. And governments in the different regions respond in different ways – but without consistency or cohesion.
The world of Blueprints shows what can happen when actions out pace events...This isn’t a sudden outbreak of altruism. It’s a recognition of shared interests, new opportunities for profitable business, and the benefits of taking action before it’s forced by circumstances.

In the world of Blueprints, local actions spread and join up –- like the C40 megacities pact of mayors and others, experimenting and sharing good practices around carbon emissions, transport and energy efficiency. During the next decade, the Blueprints world is diverse. Different parts use different approaches to promote energy efficiency, and technology development. Some choose taxes. Others use mandates. Some look for voluntary action by businesses and consumers. The most successful approaches spread. However, the diversity makes life difficult for investment. Pressure is created on local, national and international authorities to harmonize arrangements better.
I would like to highlight that bio-fuels are an important factor in both scenarios. All in all, the entire video is very optimistic...even the Scramble scenario has a happy ending...

Eventually a new, more positive phase emerges. Enforced steps to reduce energy demand gradually have an effect. …Individual, local efforts to promote renewable energy sources start to pay off. Renewables become well enough established, and on a large enough scale, to be competitive.

No doomer die-off in Shell's future. I guess that would not be a positive PR campaign.

As for how it is really going to play out, I know which scenario sounds more realistic. Surely, if we cannot get the American people to agree on anything, how can the entire world come together in a unified fashion. The scramble scenario certainly sounds like the path we are currently on. Perhaps it may end up being a combination of the two. Only time will tell.


fhe said...

Biofuels are a hoax. The only way biofuels will ever reduce greenhouse gases is by making food so expensive that lots of people will die of starvation. Then less people will mean less pollution. Not sure this is the way to go. Certainly not a very humanitarian solution.

Chief said...

I appreciate the comment fhe, don't think algae will compete for food, do you? I prefer intelligent conversation about bio-fuels...